As the holiday shopping season unfolds, many consumers are contemplating whether this is the opportune moment to purchase items before potential price surges. This consideration arises from the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to implement substantial tariffs on imported goods. Although the specifics of his tariff strategy remain uncertain, one thing is clear: tariffs are expected to rise. Trump has indicated his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports from the outset of his presidency. During his campaign, he even proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% to 20% tariff on goods from other nations. While these threats could be part of his negotiation tactics rather than definitive plans, the implementation of tariffs could lead to a significant increase in consumer prices for almost all products that are not entirely manufactured in the United States, which is not the case for many items today. Therefore, it may be wise to start planning ahead to mitigate the financial impact on your wallet.

However, there are caveats to consider. For instance, the shelf life of imported fruits and vegetables limits how much one can stockpile before they spoil. Additionally, as the pandemic-era toilet paper hoarding phenomenon demonstrated, consumer stockpiling can lead to higher prices and empty store shelves, according to Scott Lincicome, Vice President of General Economics and Trade at the libertarian Cato Institute. With this in mind, here are some items you might want to consider adding to your holiday shopping list to preempt potential tariff-induced price increases.

Smartphones and Other Electronic Devices

Smartphones, particularly iPhones, are a popular holiday gift, as evidenced by Apple's sales data, which often shows a significant increase in the quarter as people upgrade to the latest models. This demand extends to other smartphones and electronic gadgets, which draw large crowds of shoppers during the holiday season. Currently, the majority of smartphones are not manufactured in the United States, with China accounting for 78% of total US imports, according to a recent analysis by the Consumer Technology Association. Shifting smartphone production to other countries, including the United States, could significantly increase prices. A 10% import tariff, coupled with an additional 60% on Chinese goods, could raise the price of a new smartphone by 26% to $213, and this figure could rise even higher with a 25% blanket tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, as reported by the CTA. However, due to supply chain issues during the pandemic, Apple has begun to move some of its iPhone production out of China and into India.

Household Appliances

A 10% tariff on all imports, along with an additional 60% tariff on Chinese imports, could increase the price of the average household appliance by 19.4%, assuming retailers pass on the additional costs to consumers. This analysis was commissioned by the National Retail Federation, a trade association representing retailers. For example, a new $40 toaster could cost about $48. The same price increase applies to other household appliances such as hair dryers, vacuums, and even larger items like washing machines, according to the NRF report. While this does not necessarily mean you should rush out to purchase these items, if you are in need of a new appliance—or will be soon—it may be a good time to consider buying.

Gaming Consoles and Computer Monitors

The price of a new gaming console could increase by nearly 40%, considering only the 10% tariff on all imports and an additional 60% on Chinese goods, according to the CTA. This would raise the average price of a gaming console by $246. This is primarily because China is the major supplier of consoles, accounting for 87% of US video game console imports last year, as per the CTA-commissioned report. There are few alternatives for moving production, and utilizing the few that exist comes at a high cost. Another device that could become more expensive is a computer monitor, which could jump by over 30% under Trump's tariff plan, according to CTA estimates. This would mean the average computer monitor would cost about $100 more.

Laptops and Tablets

A 10% across-the-board import tariff, plus the additional 60% on Chinese goods, could result in a 45% increase in consumer prices for laptops and tablets, according to the CTA's report. On average, this would mean consumers pay $357 more for laptops and $201 for tablets. "There's very little in the consumer electronics space that is not imported," Best Buy CEO Corie Barry stated during the company's earnings call last week. "The customer ends up bearing some of the cost of the tariffs. These are goods that people need, and higher prices are not helpful."

Shoes and Toys

The NRF estimates that some of the new tariffs proposed by Trump could increase the price of some shoes by at least 18%, as brands consider moving to new manufacturing countries to save on costs. This means a running shoe that costs about $90 could go up to $106. Steve Madden is already attempting to shift some of its shoe manufacturing out of China to avoid new tariffs.

If you are planning to buy toys for children (or adults who are young at heart), be prepared to potentially spend a lot more money. If some of the new tariffs proposed by Trump go into effect, the price of some toys could rise by 36%. Like many electronics, several toys have been excluded from existing tariffs. However, since China accounted for more than 77% of total toy imports last year, a substantial broad-based tariff on Chinese goods would significantly raise prices, according to the NRF.

In conclusion, while it is impossible to predict the exact impact of potential tariffs, it is clear that they could lead to higher prices for a wide range of consumer goods. As such, it may be prudent to consider purchasing certain items now to avoid potential future cost increases. However, it is also important to balance this strategy with the practicalities of storage and the potential for market fluctuations that could affect prices in unpredictable ways.