President-elect Donald Trump has expressed optimism that the financial burden of grocery shopping will soon be alleviated for Americans. "They will be able to afford their groceries very soon," he proclaimed on Thursday, just before participating in the opening bell ceremony at the New York Stock Exchange, where he was celebrated as Time's "Person of the Year." According to the Consumer Price Index data released earlier this week, Americans paid 22% more for groceries last month compared to January 2021 when Trump left office. Moreover, a comparison with February 2020, prior to the pandemic, reveals that Americans are paying 27% more for groceries in November.

Trump recounted the story of an elderly woman who, intending to purchase three apples, was compelled to return one to the refrigerator upon seeing the price. During his campaign, Trump primarily advocated for increased oil drilling as a solution to help Americans afford food. However, as he prepares for his return to the White House, his strategy to reduce grocery prices has evolved to include addressing supply chain issues in addition to boosting oil production.

Standing before a display of packaged food, Trump highlighted the issue of food inflation during his presidential campaign. "Grocery prices have skyrocketed," he stated. "Once I win, I will immediately start to lower prices, beginning on day one." He continued, "We will drill, baby, drill," emphasizing the need to increase domestic oil production. "That's going to bring down the prices of everything," he added.

Economists generally prefer to see a modest increase in prices across the economy rather than a decrease, as deflation can lead to delayed purchases. Often, significant price drops for goods are a sign of increased unemployment and a struggling economy. "It's hard to bring things down once they're up," Trump acknowledged in his Time Magazine "Person of the Year" interview published on Thursday, referring to grocery prices. "It's very hard...But I believe they will. I think that energy will bring them down." He also mentioned, "I think a better supply chain will bring them down. You know, the supply chain is still broken."

One of the significant factors that led to a spike in food prices during the pandemic was the decrease in shipping availability and increase in freight times, leading to shortages of imported food. However, these issues have largely been resolved. Recently, monthly import cargo volume has been near record highs, according to reports from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

At his August press conference focused on grocery prices, Trump mentioned "supply chain problems" as a contributor to increased housing costs, but not specifically to elevated food costs. His new approach to addressing grocery prices comes as US crude oil production reached a new record of 13.6 million barrels per day as of December 6, according to federal data dating back to 1983. Trump himself acknowledged this, saying, "There is no country in the world that produces more oil than the US." This has helped to lower gas prices, which in turn has reduced the cost of transporting food to grocery stores nationwide.

Experts have told  that increasing drilling, even if feasible, would not significantly impact grocery prices due to numerous other factors. Focusing on improving supply chains could be a more effective strategy, although it will not be easy to address. For instance, traffic through two critical international shipping arteries has been significantly disrupted: the Suez Canal due to ongoing attacks by Houthi militants on vessels, and the Panama Canal due to a historic drought.

Even if Trump helps to improve supply chain issues, other policies he has pledged to enact, such as broad-based tariffs and mass deportations of undocumented migrants, could substantially increase food prices. On the deportation front, the food and agriculture industries rely heavily on migrant labor. Without it, these industries may face labor shortages, which could force them to increase wages. The higher cost of labor would then likely be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. It could also lead to food shortages if there are not enough workers to support food production, potentially putting further upward pressure on prices.